2023 Will Be a Highly Consequential Year for Irish Politics
By James Kemmy
The half-way point of the 33rd Dáil presents a ripe opportunity to reflect on affairs and anticipate the political dynamics that will unfold over the coming period. With Leo Varadkar re-assuming the office of Taoiseach under the unprecedented rotating premiership arrangement, the New Year spells parliamentary significance for several major reasons.
Firstly, the Fine Gael leader inherits an executive that has weathered a series of momentous crises, but one which is also marked by meagre progress in tackling Ireland’s largest structural challenges. Moreover, a minimal cabinet reshuffle in the week before Christmas either suggests impressive unity for the three-party coalition, or perhaps a mere jaded continuity, as each group’s political agenda is increasingly diluted through forced compromise. While Micheál Martin was characterised as a Taoiseach of pragmatic centrism, Varadkar is perhaps more explicit is his ideological outlook, a leader unapologetically influenced by pro-market, neoliberal values.
There is undeniable decision-making pressure ahead. While the State is currently in a strong fiscal position, buoyed by hefty corporation tax receipts, opposition calls for major investments in health and housing will undoubtedly accelerate soon. Additionally, an impending economic downturn defined by a period of stagflation will likely jeopardise consumer confidence and affect small business viability. These developments will force the government to either continue with its pandemic-oriented pattern of ad hoc interventionism or to chart a new route, one possibly involving cutbacks and fiscal discipline.
Recent chaos in the healthcare sector due to A&E calamity has triggered ferocious backlash, with stories such as that of a 70-year-old’s 57 hour wait on a Cork University Hospital chair filling headlines recently. Moreover, demonstrations are set to take place in Limerick to highlight the chronic state of the emergency department there. Now there is a creeping sense that housing, too, may be an intractable problem, with a generation of young adults locked out of both acquisition and affordable rental security- ultimately spelling disproportionate levels of emigration. While sound planning is central to tackling the housing issue, the political will to effect lasting change is fundamental.
In terms of electoral intricacies, there are several potential scenarios which could unravel, or at least begin to take hold in 2023. With Varadkar at the helm of Government, Fine Gael will certainly take the opportunity to cement themselves as the strongest anti-Sinn Féin party, ruling out any notion of sharing power with them. Questions remain over Fianna Fáil’s position on this matter however, especially if Martin is to step down as leader following the parliamentary term. In the early stages of this Dáil’s second half, Mary Lou McDonald and her strident entourage are likely to revel in the chance to launch fresh attacks on the leadership. However, as Sinn Féin edges closer to Government, it will be revealing to observe the consistency displayed towards their manifesto commitments, and how they respond to recent allegations levelled at McDonald over her personal finances and questions over the party’s attitude towards gangland violence.
Consequential too is the potential distribution of political support outside of the largest three parties. Take the Green Party for instance- will their base of liberal-left, largely middle-class voters remain solid or shift towards the Social Democrats and the Labour Party? And is a Sinn Féin-led alternative Government, exclusive of the two traditional parties, actually feasible? Pulling off such an arrangement would be a historic feat but would surely require concessions to independent deputies and smaller groups such as People Before Profit/Solidarity.
Overall, the coming months appear to suggest an increasingly febrile political environment. The first chapter of this parliamentary period was defined by crises of an external nature- Covid, the war in Ukraine, and a far-reaching cost of living crisis. These were complex, global events that were largely outside the control of a national government. However, salient domestic issues will soon come to the fore and scrutiny of the coalition’s decision-making will sharpen, becoming more politicised as public opinion evolves. 2023 represents an important political juncture indeed.