Europe’s new political pathway in an era of crises
By James Kemmy (News Editor)
Defined by a series of extraordinary developments, the years since the last European Parliament election have witnessed mammoth levels of political upheaval, ranging from a pandemic-induced economic emergency to the eruption of Europe’s first conflict in over thirty years. With the 2024 vote on the not-too-distant horizon, political responses to shock in the energy sector and accelerating climate breakdown will likely further influence outcomes. Looking at the major issues facing the continent today, the EU’s advancing role and unique institutional capacity is plainly demonstrated.
Geopolitical resolve
On a foreign policy level firstly, the early 2020s have seen a major step up from the EU in its approach and remit. Most pressing is the response to Russian aggression and the potent decision-making seen in assisting the Ukrainian effort. Since Putin’s invasion of the Eastern state almost one year ago, Europe has acted with unforeseen vigour and urgency, designing devastating sanction packages and delivering weapons in an emergency context. These actions illustrate a new security paradigm, with High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell announcing the “birth of a geopolitical Europe'' in an emergency session of the European Parliament in March last year.
What is most notable here is that the evolution of the EU’s security role has taken place in an environment contradictory to its fundamental vision. At its core, the European project is rooted in a rules-based brand of liberal institutionalism, but Russian aggression, alongside wider geopolitical discord, has taken place in an intensifying atmosphere of Realpolitik endeavours. That the EU has mustered the decisiveness and conviction to take on great power forces and abate such empire-building crusades is impressive. The Ukraine example ultimately implies a more prominent security role for Europe on a global scale and will likely heighten expectations for security intervention in future conflicts.
In navigating the tenuous political situation in Northern Ireland post-Brexit, the EU has also expanded its diplomatic realm. Having played a subtle but necessary role in establishing the region’s historic peace, EU decision-making regarding Northern Ireland remains crucial for upholding the rule of law today as the twenty fifth anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement nears. Throughout the Brexit negotiation series, the European bloc was responsive to Northern Irish people and businesses, seeking to guarantee a stable and economically frictionless region. In an act of inflammatory unilateralism however, the UK Government has threatened this diplomatic project by chipping away at the Protocol.
Deep within a convoluted and febrile process, deadlock in the negotiation sphere seemed infinite. However, recent breakthroughs in the area of data sharing have demonstrated constructive progress and optimism for EU-UK relations, hopefully indicating harmony and certainty for the future of the politically strained nation. Looking ahead, challenges remain for Europe in ensuring that international law is upheld in Northern Ireland, and that commitments to strong food and animal safety standards remain intact. In a fractious regional environment, Europe’s flexibility will be tested and the bloc will need to delicately balance all political stakeholders’ concerns going forward.
Sustainability leadership
In the interlinked areas of energy and climate policy meanwhile, recent developments have revealed weaknesses but also major opportunities in Europe. Exposed through the Kremlin’s war and its subsequent geo-economic tensions was a chronic European reliance on Russian gas. This long-established reality has been weaponised by the Putin regime, especially for nations like Germany and Bulgaria, who experienced energy devastation for the most part of 2022. According to a recent International Energy Agency report released alongside Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, a shortage of almost 30 billion cubic metres of natural gas should be expected for the coming year, with Russia likely to reduce supply to zero.
Also detailed in December’s report, however, were a series of reforms that should incentivise European states to transition to renewables, heat pump technologies, and nuclear or hydropower forms of output. The set of necessary reforms will likely be facilitated by a European simplifying of technical procedures and the operation of a pragmatic spare capacity export scheme for countries with excess reserves. With the EU’s commitment to ending reliance on Russian energy imports by 2027 alongside the ‘RePowerEU’ plan, which aims to make 45% of EU energy renewable by 2030, meaningful action is being taken now. Political cohesion will be key to the bloc’s more dynamic energy diversification effort. Despite the urgent need for adaptation, European leaders also outlined the need to decrease energy consumption by an overall of 15% in mid-2022, in line with long-term climate goals such as the 2050 net-zero commitment. With the efforts of citizens and businesses, this requirement was substantially surpassed, with a 20% aggregate reduction over the year. Such outcomes point to the potential of a more environmentally active and unified Europe in the face of connected crises.
Although brought on by an emergency, there now lies an opportunity for regional decision-makers to kickstart the much-discussed European Green Deal- to transition to sustainable energy sources, reduce consumer bills in the long term and serve as a pioneering global example for coordinating climate action.
Institutional modernisation
The final aspects of note in an evolving EU are that of its ideological direction and structural decision-making reform. With Euroscepticism and lobbying scandals tarring the project’s status in recent times, 2023 will prove an important year for the EU as it attempts to delicately re-assert regional integration and sound, liberal governance. With core members Sweden and Italy seeing nationalist and far-right forces rise to electoral prominence in 2022, there is much work to be done for the bloc to appeal to disillusioned voters attracted by extremist messaging. Additionally, significant national elections will take place over the coming months in Spain, Poland, Finland and Greece, alongside a very consequential external poll in Turkey. These events will express a flavour of the political sentiment felt within and towards the Union ahead of 2024’s parliamentary ballot.
A major criticism levelled at the EU concerns the bloc’s accountability mechanisms, typically phrased by detractors as a ‘democratic deficit’. However, emerging reforms in this area suggest a new era for more transparent European governance. While questions remain over whether the remarkably named ‘Spitzenkandidaten’ process (aimed at empowering the directly elected Parliament’s role in the appointment of the Commission president) will run for a third time at next year’s election, there are other examples of how the EU is trying to make politics more responsive to the European public. This can be seen in the proposed creation of a Union-wide constituency, with 28 MEPs potentially being elected through transnational lists. Similarly, the next parliamentary term will likely see efforts to make European elections more uniform, ensuring features such as a common voting age across all member states. Most promising however is the ‘Conference on the Future of Europe’, which is essentially a pan-European forum that brings citizens directly into the EU institutions’ decision-making processes. This would be a radical exercise in participatory democracy and could serve as a transformative initiative to bolster confidence in the wider project of regional alignment.
Overall, the current era has revealed the EU to be far more than a mere regional trading bloc- its evolution into a major international actor of profound consequence has been explicitly displayed in recent years. Furthermore, its institutional purpose has expanded and become more receptive to social, environmental, and external developments. Central to the European project’s continued success and political support will be sound policy coordination marked by sustainability and foresight. Crucial too will be the robust defence of liberal values in an increasingly populist and authoritarian world.
