Ireland’s Political Landscape is Changing

James Kemmy discusses the nation’s shifting political mindset and the emergence of a new electoral paradigm

The most recent national opinion poll, conducted by the Red C research group, finds support for Fine Gael at a record low, with Sinn Féin maintaining a clear and relatively dominant lead on 35%. This revealing survey, which was carried out in the midst of the Robert Troy property controversy, finds Tánaiste Leo Varadkar’s party at an approximated electoral nadir of just 18%- the poorest outcome for the party since the Sunday Business Post poll series began in 2005 and its third consecutive polling decrease. Fianna Fáil stands on 17%, indicating a slight rise in support over the summer months, with third coalition partner the Green Party sitting on 5%. These findings come on top of eight successive sampling indicators of Sinn Féin leads, with the national picture now suggesting an almost even split, consisting of the two, traditionally dominant, centre-right parties in conflict with an ascendant force of leftist populism. 

Looking beyond the biggest players, support for Labour and the Social Democrats was found to be at 4% each, with People Before Profit-Solidarity on 3%, Aontú on 2% and independent candidates on 12% collectively. The number of undecided voters sits at 9%. Unusually for a mid-parliamentary term poll, most of these findings express similar attitudes and intentions to the results produced at the last general election in February 2020. In addition, this survey produced very exhibitive data on attitudes towards the upcoming budget and various policy trade-offs. 

With several large-scale issues dominating Ireland’s political discourse right now- namely, the rising cost of living, housing, healthcare and the environment- there appears to be a reignited appetite for robust state intervention in the economy. For instance, just 26% of people surveyed believe that the government is doing all it can to address the cost of living crisis. According to senior lecturer and electoral behaviour expert at UCC’s Department of Government and Politics, Dr Theresa Reidy, the Irish public have always been quite pragmatic in this regard, with the issue of government investment a relatively variable feature within the voter mindset, and one which gained a more favourable view again with the “major re-engagement” of state activity seen for the last two and a half years. From the Pandemic Unemployment Payment to the introduction of various stimulus schemes for businesses and families during Covid-induced lockdowns, there now appears to be relatively solid consensus behind a larger state model, with the laissez-faire, deregulatory approach of the Celtic Tiger era losing favour significantly in recent times.

Sinn Féin seems to have effectively tapped into this macroeconomic psyche, with its political agenda in 2022 sharply centred on the delivery of public services and promises to accelerate social housing construction. Further data revealed in the September Red C poll found that, of a staggering 70% of people who are generally struggling to make ends meet (this figure was just 33% last year), a near majority intend to vote for Sinn Féin. Consequently, it seems unlikely that their support will significantly dissipate in the near future, with Mary Lou McDonald’s front bench now seriously preparing for government after having cemented themselves as a potent and outspoken opposition cause for the last several years, aided by a number of effective spokespeople and a strictly unified organisational approach.

According to Dr Reidy, Sinn Féin’s recent successes are not merely the result of political opportunism while a tenuous and fragmented coalition persists, but of a longer term strategy and incremental gains. She argues that over the last twenty years or so, the party has created a distinctive profile for itself by vigorously presenting Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as politically interchangeable and equally complicit in producing, or at least failing to alleviate, the country’s social and economic crises. Similarly, McDonald’s party has sought to present itself as strongly anti-establishment and anti-elitist, with key figure and housing spokesperson, Eoin Ó Broin, claiming that his party is “unashamedly populist” in Europe’s New Political Economy Podcast, despite the negative connotations that such a term may have. Although its definition is contested, populism is generally described as a political strategy that aims to attract ordinary people who feel ignored or disregarded by powerful elites. Theresa Reidy claims there is now clear “evidence of populist attitudes” within Irish politics, although such a phenomenon is not necessarily new, with Fianna Fáil employing similar tactics in the 1990s under Taoiseach Bertie Ahern. In the same interview, Ó Broin likened his party movement to the likes of Syriza in Greece, Podemos in Spain and the UK Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn, whereby a large-scale grassroots movement is mobilised with a socialist, and in this case, republican, agenda at its heart to combat conventional economic liberalism.

Interestingly, these polling developments point to the possible emergence of Ireland’s first real ideological divide- one between socio-economic classes and generations. This would introduce something of a structural class element into Irish politics, a phenomenon which has been largely absent in our country’s electoral history due to the defining Treaty-based schism of our traditionally dominant parties. Similarly, it is possible that Irish political culture could now evolve from a parochial, localised style to a more national issues-focused one, whereby intergenerational loyalties are deemed less relevant.  Undoubtedly however, distinct demographic trends are present within the Irish electorate, with the older generation most likely to support Fianna Fáil, middle-aged, middle-class and urban voters supporting Fine Gael and occasionally the Green Party, and younger, lower-income groups largely behind Sinn Féin’s rise.

Related to this are new ideas on Ireland’s fiscal model from the Commission on Taxation and Welfare, particularly the design of its tax burden and plans to shift it away from income and onto assets. With recent findings from the National Youth Council of Ireland revealing that 70% of young Irish people (18-24 year olds) plan to emigrate for a better quality of life, this, and other Commission-endorsed proposals such as hiking inheritance and savings taxes would appear to align with much of Sinn Féin’s political messaging. However, there are also several instances of Sinn Féin’s tax plans clashing with the Commission, notably, the party’s opposition to local property and carbon taxes and its promotion of a third rate of income tax for earners on €140,000 and above. As a consequence, and as Sinn Féin edges closer to government, there is increasing scrutiny on their policy framework and accusations from opponents that aspects of their plans are infeasible and disingenuous, such as the promise to bring the state pension entitlement age back to 65. 

Returning to more electoral issues, it is clear from endless Sinn Féin statements that their preference following the next election would be to form a new government without the two large centre-right parties, instead opting for a left-wing coalition led by Mary Lou McDonald. However, looking at the mathematics and practicalities of government formation, things may not appear as straightforward as Sinn Féin would like. In the 2020 election, various small left-wing groups and independents benefitted from the party’s transfer patterns, enabling better than expected results for People Before Profit-Solidarity among others. However, with McDonald’s party planning to run more candidates in the next election, and potentially two in most constituencies, it is almost certain that a rise in Sinn Féin seats will come at the expense of these smaller progressive figures, potentially leading to parliamentary deadlock and an intense formation process which may be reliant on certain political concessions and the involvement of independent representatives. 

Despite the sweeping shift in public opinion regarding party support, Dr Reidy claims we should be careful about writing off Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael into irrelevance, highlighting their almost century old survival and providing examples of their resilience, such as Fianna Fáil’s comeback following its disastrous 2011 general election defeat. She asserts that large parties are flexible, and that their roles will shift and evolve under a new political era. Meanwhile, if Sinn Féin is to lead the next government, it will face no small task in delivering upon its manifesto promises and restructuring the Irish economy to a more interventionist, public services-oriented model. Either way, it is clear that Irish politics has come to a very interesting, defining moment, whereby there is a genuinely competitive electoral battle and a wide array of ideological viewpoints over how to best tackle the greatest issues of our time.