Leo Varadkar To Become Taoiseach on 17th of December

By Atakan Uzun

Ireland is set to have a changeover of Taoisigh on the 17th of December as current Taoiseach, Micheál Martin will give way to current Tánaiste, Leo Varadkar. After Micheál Martin served two-and-a-half years as Taoiseach, under the rotating Taoiseach arrangement, Leo Varadkar will now hope to serve the remaining years left of the maximum lifetime of this government. The rotating Taoiseach arrangement put in place all became possible from the agreement reached by the government parties to initiate this arrangement in June 2020. But let’s remind ourselves, how does this rotating Taoiseach arrangement work and what is the precedent for such a government arrangement in past Irish political history? Agreed upon as part of the Programme for Government, the Fianna Fáil leader was to hold the office of An Taoiseach from the 27th of June 2020 until 15th of December 2022 when Martin will “offer his resignation to the President and all Parties and TDs supporting the Government will support the nomination of the Leader of the Fine Gael party [Varadkar]”. 

From the point that Martin became Taoiseach, under the arrangement, with an estimated 5 year lifetime of this government, he has served the first two-and-a-half years of the government’s reign, whilst Varadkar will now soon serve the final years of this Government, which is hoped to last until the end of February 2025. Rather than the 15th of December, Varadkar will now take over the reins of Taoiseach on the 17th of December because of an associated delay due to a clashing of Micheál Martin attending the final European Council meeting of the year, and the date he is due to hand over the reins of office to Varadkar. He will need to be approved by a simple Dáil vote of TDs. If approved by the Dáil, a cabinet reshuffle will take place, which (apart from the switch between Taoiseach and Tánaiste, along with Finance Minister, Paschal Donohoe, and Public Expenditure and Reform Minister, Michael McGrath) appears to be low-key. When agreed as part of the Programme for Government, the rotating Taoiseach arrangement was the first example of its use in Irish political history. On previous occasions, it was touted as a way of forming a government, but never came into fruition. Contemporarily, rather than just the idea of rotating Taoisigh, Varadkar taking the strings of power in December has attracted controversy. Many, including the opposition, have previously believed that a general election should be held to decide the political make-up of a potential government for change rather than Varadkar taking over as Taoiseach, and abiding by the rotating Taoiseach arrangement reached in the Programme for Government. 

Their main area of concern was the investigation by An Garda Síochána into whether Leo Varadkar broke the law by leaking a ‘confidential’ document to a friend while he was serving as Taoiseach in 2019. While this issue has been legally cleared up, and An Garda Síochána have cleared Varadkar of any wrongdoing, it still casts a shadow over Varadkar and his political career. Will the beginning of Varadkar’s term as Taoiseach be an opportunity for a fresh start for him and the government? For him, he will certainly hope, it represents an opportunity to move on from the past demons of his political career. For the Government, it is an opportunity for a low-key cabinet reshuffle, especially in junior ministries, with potential future senior ministers, earmarked in the future, appointed in junior roles. From this small-scale cabinet reshuffle, it may also represent a chance for the current Government to reset and start off again as if it was a brand new Government altogether. 

However, whatever cabinet reshuffle emerges, the idea of the current Government, whether it be under the stewardship of either Micheál Martin or Leo Varadkar continuing in power until 2025 has received a mixed response. This is evident in recent polls. Whilst more of the public, approximately 57%, polled in the latest Ipsos/MRBI poll are happy for the Government to continue in office when Leo Varadkar is expected to become Taoiseach on the 17th of December, compared to 37% who want a general election, Sinn Féin’s support in the latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks standing at 34%, compared to 21% for Fine Gael, and 17% for Fianna Fáil, indicates a consolidation of the main opposition party’s support, and a thawing out of the Government’s recent Budget bounce. If the Government is to serve its full term in office, it will need to deal with the everyday issues facing the people of Ireland, whether they are financial or non-financial.