The art of winning an election
Brian Conmy asks what factors can swing an election.Although much of the study into elections tends not to delve into the realms of student politics, in favour of more weighty general elections, it’s probable that at least some of the findings could apply to our upcoming Students’ Union elections. As such, here’s a small taste of what may bring one candidate victory over another on the day.Sports results, for one, have a startling effect on voters. While this may initially seem like nonsense, think about it: your favourite soccer team killed it in the match last night and you’re in a great mood heading in to vote. How does this change your voting pattern? Well, apparently the dopamine spike a great win can give you makes you up to 5% more likely to vote for incumbent candidates. One study even linked this phenomenon to Obama’s sudden spike in approval rating during the 2009 NCAA Basketball Tournament… All of which may leave Joe Kennedy and Barry Nevin hoping for positive 6 Nations and Cricket World Cup results to continue!The order in which names are listed on a ballot is a topic that is talked about surprisingly often in some political science circles. Different electoral systems force names to be listed in certain ways and in the upcoming campus election some candidates are altering their names to ensure a higher place on the ballot. How does this help their chances? Favourably, it seems. Since many people may only vote knowledgably on one particular race (perhaps voting for a friend) the odds are they will randomly fill in the other races. This seemingly random filling in, however, favours the first name on the list by an average of 2%. Not a huge number on this scale but that margin could have swung UCC elections in the past.Finally and perhaps of most importance given the criticisms being thrown around these particular elections is this simple fact: candidate gender does not significantly impact voting patterns. Numerous studies have shown that in a majority of cases a candidate’s gender does not impact their chances of winning on the day. As positive as this may seem, these studies do often show that there are, and for a long while have been, significant difficulties for female or non-male candidates to actually get on the ballot in the first place. Given the sadly low number of female candidates in the UCCSU elections this year, it seems these studies may hold through in this instance at least.