“The Moneyball Effect” – how data is revolutionising sport

Writes Joseph MurphyThe term “Moneyball” has become popular within sporting circles, mainly referring to the use of advanced statistics and analytics to drive decision making within teams – whether it be in terms of playstyle or recruitment. Its origins lie with the Oakland Athletics, an MLB baseball team that pioneered the use of in-depth statistics to create an advantage over other teams. This story was then adapted into Michael Lewis’ best-selling book “Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game”, and eventually into a 2011 film adaptation starring Brad Pitt.The Oakland “A’s” had struggled in the MLB, lacking the funding to bring in the best available talent in terms of coaches and players. Upon deciding that outspending their opponents would not be possible, the A’s aimed to outthink them; eventually putting together a completely new team of low-value players who had been cast aside by other teams.Though these players had fallen out of favour around the league, the A’s metrics assured them that these acquisitions would be valuable in the right situation. The new-look A’s eventually proved their worth, going on a famed 20-game winning streak during the 2002 season, and coming very close to an appearance in the American League Championship Series (i.e., the MLB final).This is a common feature of the use of data analytics throughout sports, as talent can easily fly under the radar. Often, a player is in a situation that does not suit their own strengths, and are disregarded as simply not being good enough – data can help to assess compatibility between club and player. Take the example of Dutch footballer Memphis Depay.Then widely regarded as one of Europe’s most promising talents, Depay arrived at Manchester United from Dutch club PSV Eindhoven in 2015. United paid £25m for his services, and he was handed the club’s iconic number 7 jersey. However, things did not go according to plan – Depay seemingly did not fit in at United, leaving a lot to be desired and receiving criticism in the media for his poor performances.In January 2017, Depay’s nightmare ended as he was sold to French club Olympique Lyonnais. In Lyon, Depay has rediscovered his form, registering 54 goals and 39 assists in 123 Ligue 1 appearances, compared to 2 goals and 1 assist in his 33 league games in England. How did this perfect marriage between club and player come about?The answer is through mathematical modelling. One of the first transfers of its kind, Depay and his agent employed the services of data intelligence firm SciSports to help them decide on a transfer destination. To simplify what happened, SciSports conducted an analysis of Depay’s style of play in order to evaluate which European team may be a sensible fit for him. They then collected data regarding various clubs and managers, identifying their preferred style of play in order to find a situation where his talents could be maximised. Lyon became the frontrunner, and after Depay’s agent approached them with the prospect of signing his client along with the numbers to back it up, the transfer was quickly completed – and neither party has felt the need to look back since.There are plenty of similar stories regarding data-driven decision making in sport that are worth reading about. Daryl Morey’s revolutionary “Moreyball” playstyle in basketball – a tactic which encourages teams to focus on high-value (3-point shots), and efficient (close to the basket) shots to maximise output. The rest of the NBA has already taken notice, evident by the contrast between the top 200 shot locations during the 2001-02 season in comparison to the 2019-20 season.Matthew Benham was one of the earliest proponents of advanced analytics in football, using this to understand the game at a deeper level, and making a fortune from it as a professional sports bettor. He has since moved into the sport as an owner with Brentford FC, as well as FC Midtjylland in Denmark, taking his methods with him.In that time, Brentford have risen from League Two (4th tier) to the Championship (2nd tier) in England, now battling for promotion to the top flight. Brentford’s ability to identify “diamonds in the rough” in terms of undervalued talents has been much to their benefit, both to their performance on the pitch, and also as a “buy low, sell high” tactic to make money from the transfer market.FC Midtjylland have won 3 league titles since Benham’s arrival, having never been champions prior. Their focus on data goes as far as having analysts and number crunchers contact the coach at half-time during games to relay any inefficiencies that they noticed in the first half.These are just some of the notable examples of the widespread data revolution across sport. For more information and writing around the topic, check out www.ballandbriefcase.com and Instagram account @ballandbriefcase.