Three Years Since The Last Irish General Election
by Atakan Uzun (Deputy News Editor)
It is often said that a week is a long time in politics. By that logic, three years is a political lifetime. Recent days have marked three years since Ireland last held a general election, which took place on the 8th of February 2020. The environment in which the election was held represented a vastly different one to what we know today. Notably, it was just a couple of weeks before the country would be hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, and eventually enter into a two-month lockdown to prevent the spread of the virus. Consequently, one of the main issues, which would become highlighted during the pandemic that became the catalyst for the holding of the snap election was the state of the health service.
After a no-confidence motion was called by Independent TD for Cork South-West, Michael Collins against the Minister for Health Simon Harris due to the problems, surrounding the health service, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar decided to seek a dissolution of Dáil Éireann on the 14th of January 2020. That was because it became apparent that the government would not have the mathematical support of 50% of the 157 TDs to survive the no-confidence motion. The eventual agreed election date of the 8th of February paved the way for a three-week election campaign to elect 160 members of the 33rd Dáil.
Fine Gael entered the election as the incumbent party with a total of 50 seats. Fianna Fáil, who were touted as the likely party to emerge from the election as the largest party, had 44 seats in the previous Dáil. Meanwhile, Sinn Féin, who many were tipping to lose seats after their underwhelming performance in the 2019 local and European parliamentary elections came into the election with 22 seats in defensive mode. The previous government was led by a Fine Gael minority coalition government with a number of TDs from the now-defunct Independent Alliance, kept in power through a confidence-and-supply arrangement with Fianna Fáil. This meant that the 2020 general election represented a cross-roads for many political anoraks and observers to draw conclusions on the potential parties of the next government.
In the campaign, Fine Gael ran on a slogan of ‘A future we can look forward to’, which placed Brexit as the centre piece issue of its manifesto, whilst Fianna Fáil focused on its message of ‘An Ireland For All’, promising to address the housing crisis through measures to increase home ownership. It also focused on measures to increase cash transfers in social welfare, along with a mix of tax cuts. Through its manifesto, ‘Giving Workers and Families a Break’, Sinn Féin placed Irish unity at the centre of its manifesto, and fixated on a number of state-led solutions to address the accompanying problems of housing and economic inequalities. They also promised to reverse the proposed increase in the pension age. The other minor parties, including Labour, the Social Democrats, and Solidarity – People Before Profit proposed several state-led measures to address the housing and health crises.
Seven debates took place throughout the campaign with three on RTÉ One, three on Virgin Media One, and one on TG4. The first debate held was a straight head-to-head between Fine Gael leader, Leo Varadkar, and Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin, which was hosted on Virgin Media One by Pat Kenny. The most notable event during this debate was Varadkar failing to address what was perceived as a lack of empathy on his part during his time as Taoiseach. The following two debates, one on RTÉ One, hosted by Claire Byrne included a broad range of the parties in Dáil Éireann from the largest parties, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin to the smaller parties, the Social Democrats, Labour, Solidarity – People Before Profit, and the Green Party.
The next debate was the one which attracted the most controversy. Prime Time, which hosted two debates to accommodate all party leaders, caused controversy as the original schedule for debates consisted of a head-to-head debate between Varadkar and Martin and excluded Sinn Féin president, Mary Lou McDonald. Sinn Féin, who issued a legal threat to the exclusion of McDonald, eventually withdrew this legal challenge after RTÉ opted to reverse their decision. The latter two debates of the election campaign took place between the deputy leaders of each of the respective large parties.
During the campaign, six public national opinion polls were held. As the election drew ever closer, on the 30th of January, the RED C/Sunday Business Post poll put Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, level on 24%, with Fine Gael trailing behind. An election, which was once considered to be a walk-over for Fianna Fáil, and an underwhelming one for Sinn Féin would turn out to be the most historic election since the first election in 1918. The next Ipsos/MRBI/Irish Times poll gave Sinn Féin the sole lead with 25%, in comparison to 22% for Fianna Fáil, and 17% for Fine Gael, respectively.
Sinn Féin would end up winning the highest percentage of first preference votes with 24.5%, compared to 22.2% for Fianna Fáil, and 20.9% for Fine Gael. However, as previously outlined, because Sinn Féin ran its campaign in defensive mode, it did not run enough candidates, meaning it could not be the beneficiary of the vote transfers. Instead, its vote transfers would end up aiding other left-wing candidates from a number of parties, including Bríd Smith of Solidarity – People Before Profit. In the end, despite not running enough candidates, Sinn Féin won 37 seats, compared to 38 for Fianna Fáil, whose Ceann Chomhairle was automatically elected, and Fine Gael, who returned with 35 seats.
Out of the smaller parties, the Green Party and the Social Democrats were the biggest achievers. Despite winning 7.1% and 2.9% of the first preference votes respectively, they both increased their seat share to end the election with 12 seats for the former, and 6 seats for the latter. Labour, comparatively continued to experience the consequences of their time in coalition government with Fine Gael from 2011-2016. They earned 6 seats, a net loss of 1 on the 2016 election. Solidarity – People Before Profit lost 1 seat, but returned with 5 seats, whilst Aontú earned a sole seat as its leader, Peadar Tóibín, retained his seat. A total number of 19 independents were elected to the 33rd Dáil, with the overall number slightly down on the 23 independents elected in 2016, due to the unsuccessful bid of the incumbent Independent Alliance TDs to retain their seats.
The fragmented nature of the 33rd Dáil would pave the way for the longest period to form a government in Irish political history. Interrupted by Covid-19, the current three-party government, Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael – Green Party coalition government would not begin office until the 27th of June when Micheál Martin was elected as Taoiseach. Agreed in this government was the introduction of rotating Taoisigh, with Martin handing over the reins of power to Varadkar in December 2022. In some ways, the period from June 2020 to December 2022 was the first half of the government. Varadkar is now in the second full month of his period as Taoiseach, and the second half of this government has just begun, alongside a small-scale cabinet reshuffle.
Varadkar and the current government hope to serve in office until February 2025. However, recent indications anecdotally discussed by him, mentioned an early autumn election in 2024. If it was to happen, it would represent the first autumn election to be held since 1923. Whether that happens, remains to be seen. Nevertheless, highlighted by the preceding elections, the next general election that occurs in Ireland, whenever it happens, is likely to attract significant interest amongst the general public and political anoraks like myself. In the midst of the Cost of Living crisis, accompanied with the current war in Ukraine, the next government will face a huge challenge to remain in office beyond the next election. It will face a strong opposition, led by Sinn Féin, who are likely to learn from the mistakes made in the months leading up to the 2020 general election.
