Female Frankenstein, Marcus Aurelius, and an Oppenheimer Sweep: My Predictions for the 2024 Oscars
By Film and TV Editor Mia Tobin Power
It’s the most wonderful time of the year: Oscar season. Don’t even bother telling me that the Oscars are “rigged” and “mean nothing” - I disagree, but regardless, I always have so much fun keeping up with Oscar predictions in the months leading up to the ceremony and watching the awards show itself, and then complaining that it was too predictable and that the show itself was bad. But that’s my right! And I want to give you readers the chance to complain that you already knew who was going to win, and to feel smug about it too (hopefully). Here are my predictions for (some of) the 2024 Academy Awards!
Best Picture:
The actual ceremony leaves the biggest award for last, but I may as well start with it. For months now, it’s seemed very likely that Oppenheimer will win Best Picture. The Academy loves war films and films about “great men”, which makes Oppenheimer the perfect candidate. We’re lucky that Oppenheimer is also really good – it’s always nice when Best Picture goes to an actual good film. And to be fair, this year’s slate is impressive: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things were all among my favourite films of 2023, and I really liked both The Zone of Interest and American Fiction when I saw them recently. Cinema is back!
Picture from Oppenheimer dir. Christopher Nolan
Best Director:
Again, it’s seemed like a done deal for months now that Christopher Nolan will win Best Director for Oppenheimer. It’s only his second directing Oscar nomination, but this win will be well-deserved, for his career as a whole as well as Oppenheimer itself, which is undeniably a great cinematic achievement. He would be my choice for the award too. And like many others, I was shocked that Greta Gerwig didn’t get a directing nomination for Barbie, but I think the unnecessary uproar over it overshadowed how exciting it is that Justine Triet got a nomination for Anatomy of a Fall – an acknowledgement of her success in making a film that is almost entirely set in a courtroom feel so tense and even perilous.
Picture by Julien De Rosa: AFP
Best Actress:
Again, I think that the discourse around Margot Robbie not getting a nomination for Barbie overshadowed Lily Gladstone’s historic achievement, in that she became the first Native American actress nominated for an Oscar. Gladstone is definitely my choice to win; Mollie is easily the most interesting character in the film, made even more so by Gladstone’s performance, and her presence is so magnetic that you can’t take your eyes off her for a second. I actually think her criminally underseen performance in Certain Women was even better than that in Killers of the Flower Moon, but that just goes to show how special a performer she is. At the time of writing, I still think (and hope) that Lily Gladstone will win on the night, but Emma Stone just may take it for her similarly excellent (and tricky) performance in Poor Things. I also want to shout out Sandra Hüller, whose enigmatic performance is essential to the success of Anatomy of a Fall, and Greta Lee, who unfortunately missed out on a nomination for her incredible work in Past Lives.
Picture by Michael Buckner: Getty Images
Best Actor:
Like Best Actress, the Best Actor race this year looks split between a performance in a drama and a performance in a comedy - namely, Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer and Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers. Both actors won at the Golden Globes last month because that ceremony gives out lead acting awards for dramas and comedies separately. But when it comes down to it, I think the Academy will award Cork’s own Cillian Murphy for his career-best work as the titular Oppenheimer - which, despite the memes, is an utterly captivating and convincing performance.
Golden Globes 2024
Best Supporting Actress:
This award is a lock if there ever was one. Da’Vine Joy Randolph will win this award for her heart wrenching and compelling performance in The Holdovers. The film would be very different and not as layered without her character Mary, and certainly without the blend of warmth and deep loneliness that Randolph brings to the role. She’s a deserving winner.
Picture by Gilbert Flores: Golden Globes 2024
Best Supporting Actor:
It seems like the whole world knows that Robert Downey Jr. will win here for his performance in Oppenheimer. I was pleasantly surprised at how good Downey Jr. was in the film, but this will be as much of an “It’s Time” Oscar (a recognition of an actor’s career as a whole) as an award for this particular performance. He wouldn’t be my choice - that would be Sterling K. Brown, who was my favourite part of American Fiction, or Mark Ruffalo, playing against type in Poor Things and having so much fun with it. Downey Jr. and Ruffalo being nominated together here tells an interesting story: how much better off the world of cinema is when actors get out of the Marvel machine and get to make proper films.
Picture by Michael Buckner: Golden Globes 2024
Best Original Screenplay:
Here’s where things get a bit more interesting. This category is where the “cool” films usually win, films that are a bit bolder or more original, that the Academy wants to award in some way but doesn’t want to give Best Picture (yes, I know that the Academy is made up of individual voters with their own opinions, but this is generally how it works). For example, Jordan Peele won Best Original Screenplay in 2018 for Get Out - a film that was a cultural phenomenon but wasn’t seen as an “Oscar film” by many older Academy members. What will win this year? While Past Lives and May December are widely beloved by critics and audiences, their relatively few nominations overall suggest the Academy doesn’t share that love. And realistically, Maestro was lucky to even be nominated. It’s between Anatomy of a Fall and The Holdovers, and while Anatomy is the “cooler” choice, I think David Hemingson will take it for The Holdovers. I’d be delighted for either film to win.
Picture from The Holdovers dir. Alexander Payne
Best Adapted Screenplay:
This is possibly the most stacked category this year, and one of the hardest to predict. The Oppenheimer sweep may extend to Screenplay too, but my guess would be that the boldness and transgression of Tony McNamara’s Poor Things screenplay will be recognised here, especially since the film is unlikely to win Best Picture.
Picture from Poor Things dir. Yorgos Lanthimos
Best International Feature:
Despite being nominated for Best Picture, Anatomy of a Fall isn’t nominated here because France instead chose The Taste of Things as its submission to this category (which then missed out on a nomination altogether). If Anatomy had been submitted, this category would have been more competitive; as it stands, the UK’s submission - Jonathan Glazer’s emotionally devastating and intellectually fascinating The Zone of Interest - is sure to win. I was pleased to see a nomination for Wim Wenders’ Perfect Days, a beautiful film about what it is to be alive, and the joy of listening to music on your way to work. But my personal choice to win in this category unfortunately wasn’t even nominated - Aki Kaurismäki’s stunning film Fallen Leaves. It’s the most bittersweet rom-com I’ve ever seen, and I would highly recommend it - it’s only 81 minutes long, and it’s available to watch on MUBI now.
Picture from The Zone of Interest dir. Jonathan Glazer
Best Animated Feature:
I would definitely give this award to Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which impressively reached the heights of its predecessor in terms of storytelling, and exceeded it in terms of the sheer variety of art styles it used. And while Into the Spider-Verse did win in this category in 2019, the Academy will likely reward the filmmaking legend Hayao Miyazaki for his alleged “final film”, The Boy and the Heron. It’s a deserving winner for its truly delightful little creatures alone!
Picture from The Boy and the Heron dir. Hayao Miyazaki
Quick-fire predictions:
Best Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol
Best Cinematography: Hoyte van Hoytema, Oppenheimer
Best Original Score: Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
Best Editing: Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer
Best Production Design: Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Barbie
Best Costume Design: Jacqueline Durran, Barbie
Best Sound: Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn, The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects: Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, and Tatsuji Nojima, Godzilla Minus One
Picture from Barbie dir. Greta Gerwig
I believe that a good few of these wins are set in stone, but the prediction I’m most confident about is that Oppenheimer will sweep a lot of these categories. I’m usually not a fan of sweeps - I prefer for more films to be recognised, especially if they’re as good as these ones are - but if it has to happen, I do think Oppenheimer is deserving of a lot of these awards. We only have to wait until the March 10 to find out.
