Irish Reunification: Is a Referendum Incoming?
By News Editor David Twomey
In the 26 years since the extraordinary Good Friday Agreement which signalled the end of three decades of The Troubles, Northern Ireland has created peace, but not a steady Government. In the deal, both unionist and nationalist sides of Government were given the ability to veto decisions, causing rampant stalling of progress: the Executive has been on hold for nearly 40 per cent of the time since 1998. The Executive have also had no government programme or multi-year budget since 2015.
In 2022, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP)’s dominance of the Northern Irish political landscape was altered by Sinn Féin’s victory in local elections. As Stormont has resumed this year, Sinn Féin’s holding of the executive for the first time has further increased their political capacity. Reunification through enaction the Good Friday Agreement’s Northern Ireland Act 1998 is a core principle of the Republican party, and leader Mary Lou MacDonald has stated that the objective is ‘within touching distance’. Michelle O’Neill, the new first minister (and first Republican first minister), wants a referendum for reunification of Ireland within a decade; the potential occurrence on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future has now increased in debate.
Demographic Development
Although the public support of reunification is still highly debated, changing demographics and opinion in Northern Ireland give the possibility its greatest chance since partition. Traditionally separated by religious lines, Protestant and Catholic identification is still the most divisive factor in split of support.
Source: Irish Times/ARINS poll, December 2023
A slim majority of Northen Ireland remain pro-union, but the Republic of Ireland’s continuance of firm reunification support (with a far larger population) would likely swing the referendum. Whichever way a potential referendum would result, the potential reaction in Northen Ireland has been shown to be softening in vitriol at a rapid pace year on year.
Source: Irish Times/ARINS poll, December 2023
Source: Irish Times/ARINS poll, December 2023
For Northern Irish Protestants (having a more concentrated support of one side) the potential impossibility to accept losing the vote is far higher than Northern Irish Catholics, whose acceptance of the democratic vote seems an unlikely issue. In such a historically violent debate, the decline of firm opposition may reduce the possibility of violence on either decision of the referendum.
With the stance on reunification still primarily influenced by religion, Sinn Féin’s push for reunification will likely continue to improve in support in the coming generation: in the 2021 census, the Northern Irish population who identified as Catholics or were brought up in that religion (45.7 per cent) surpassed the 43.5 per cent as Protestant for the first time in history. This was notably alongside a shift in national identity: in the 2011 census, 48 per cent of Northern Irish people identified as British, with 28 per cent as Irish. A decade later, 43 per cent identified as British, while 33 per cent identified as Irish. A rise in Irish passport holders (influenced by Brexit) has also continued to grow. These demographic changes driven by birth rates are expected to continue in such a trend. Although a referendum in the short term is likely to swing towards reunification, this trend means that the likelihood may only grow.
Practicality of a United Ireland
In light of Sinn Féin’s increasing suggestion for an upcoming referendum, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak insisted that Northern Ireland’s position in the UK ‘will be safe for decades to come’. His likely successor, Labour Leader Keir Starmer, has also firmly positioned himself against the possibility, stating last year that ‘I don’t think we’re anywhere near that kind of question…It’s not even on the horizon’. Ireland’s Future, an organisation pushing reunification, has stated that: ‘When the time for a border poll comes, English attempts to block democracy in Ireland will fail.’ However, the UK Government’s aversion to initially ordering the bill could be an important block: the enablement of such a bill depends on the Secretary of State, which has remained a Conservative-held position for over a decade. If not held by a Republican politician, delaying of the poll would be likely.
Sunak’s diplomacy, from attaining an agreement with Brussels to reduce Northern Irish Brexit-related trade issues, getting the DUP to rejoin the executive, and agreeing to £3.3 billion in funding, have attempted to support Northern Ireland’s growth this decade in the union. Although being an overlooked (and uncommon) achievement in his Tory leadership, with the upcoming UK general election Northern Ireland is unlikely to remain a key concern for the Prime Minister. The responsibility of captaining this recently dredged ship now lies on the executive.
In a recent visit to Belfast, Sunak pushed the Northern Irish executive to focus on ‘day-to-day things that matter to people’ rather than reunification. Although coming from a leader who wants to deter a border poll, his statement is supported by bountiful evidence which may delay Sinn Féin’s urge. Before the DUP’s recent return to the executive, Stormont had been suspended since the start of last year, further delaying vital government action. In this time, education, public pay, and police resources have become an impending crisis; the police services are currently 8,000 officers short according to the chief constable of the PSNI. Hospital waiting lists are up 15 per cent, with Dolores McCormick of the Royal College of Nursing stating that ‘the state of our health service in Northern Ireland is beyond crisis…We have fallen off the cliff edge’. Despite stating that health was a priority, Sinn Féin did not seek the health portfolio in the power-sharing agreement. They do hold the economy and finance portfolios; portfolios which hold dire contents. Parts of the £3.3 billion funding is conditional on defining financial sustainability while increasing revenue; the UK Government urges an increase in taxes. As this is under Sinn Féin’s responsibility, needed fiscal and monetary changes may put the party in a difficult situation for popularity, having to follow the House of Commons’ recommendations and push through likely unpopular tax hikes. With reunification dialogue being driven by the republican party, potential decline in popularity may hamper the increasingly open Northern Irish public’s support of the party and thus referendum. The economic reality of Northern Ireland’s new executive also holds influence in the Republic of Ireland’s support of reunification; when Republic of Ireland citizens were asked about referendum voting again but prefaced with reunification would be supported by an increase in their taxes, ‘Irish Unity’ voting fell below 50 per cent.
Philip Smith, co-founder of lobby group Uniting UK, said that ‘For anybody who is pro-union, you want to ensure that Northern Ireland works…Sinn Fein, ironically, may have to make Northern Ireland work as well if they want to achieve their goals.’
Sinn Féin’s drive to reunify the island is still growing; although recently falling by 6 per cent, they still hold a lead for the upcoming elections in the Republic, giving them the opportunity to be the first party to be in power in both the North and the Republic. Changing demographics have also enhanced the possibility of a border poll, and a referendum is likely to continue to grow in public discourse. However, Northern Ireland’s new executive’s daunting tasks should be a priority for the stabilisation of the state. Economic reality may reign in Sinn Féin’s reunification dreams in the near future. Now holding unprecedented power in Northern Ireland, and expected to follow suit in the Republic, Sinn Féin’s success in Government will be a highly influential factor in their goal of a united Ireland.
