By Electoral Consultant Méabh Lonergan

FULL TIME OFFICERS

PRESIDENT

A quick look tells us that Halpin-Hill leads with an 12 point lead - if we ignore potential transfer votes from Bonekov, and the 4.7 per cent who said they were not voting or unsure, this would give her a 99 per cent chance of victory. However, reality is rarely as simple as a Google Forms poll makes out, so let’s break it down further. Even if all of Bonekov’s transfers went to Re-open Nominations (RON), and all of the unsure/not voting category turn out and vote for RON, either outright, or as a second choice to Bonekov, Halpin-Hill still stands a 75 per cent chance of winning.

COMMUNICATIONS AND ENGAGEMENT

Communications and Engagement Officer shows a simple result - O’Connor Vaughan ahead of RON by a 62.8 point lead - meaning we can be 99 per cent sure of their victory.

EDUCATION

Now for a close one! Rucker seems to be taking a lead in this poll, but the results are so close that even if all ‘will not vote/unsure’ votes are ignored, they’re only ahead by 3.1 points. When we take into account the unsure votes, and any transfers from RON, things get more complicated. A whopping 79 people were unsure of who they’d vote for - or if they would vote at all - which could make or break the election for both candidates. If we assume all ‘unsure’s decide to vote, and distribute those votes proportionally to the existing first choices, and that RON’s transfer votes are then split likewise, there is still only a 75 per cent chance of a Rucker victory. This is only the most likely scenario - there are dozens of combinations of transfers and last-minute decisions which could change things. Rucker may be able to relax somewhat, but not switch off completely.

WELFARE

Welfare Officer sees a wide win for Luna, leading the race with 48.7 points. Even if all RON transfers and ‘unsure’ votes go to Chierchini, there is still a 99 per cent chance that Luna will be next year’s Welfare Officer. This may be partially due to an impressively wide campaign - I’m not even a UCC student anymore, and I still had her posts appear on my explore page.

ENTERTAINMENT

Entertainment Officer may be the most chaotic race we’ve seen in years. Kate Higgins and Conor Walsh are practically tied, so there’s no guarantee as to who will hold the lead on the day, let alone after transfers. Juice Walsh is only a matter of points behind, and with 17.8 per cent undecided, last-minute campaigns will decide all.

COMMERCIAL AND FUNDRAISING

Kelly leads the race for Commercial and Fundraising Officer with 2131 per cent of the votes - far from a slim victory. However, with almost 30 per cent of respondents undecided, UCCSU veteran Angland can still swing a win. To estimate the probability of a win for Kelly, we’ll use the same technique used above for Education Officer. If the RON transfers and the ‘unsure’ votes are divided between the two candidates proportional to their first-round results, Kelly holds a 99 per cent chance of winning with almost 66 per cent of the vote. This will be difficult odds for Angland to beat - even if he wins three quarters of the RON transfers and ‘unsure’ votes (assuming all the ‘unsure’s show up, that is), Kelly maintains a 75 per cent chance of winning. Angland will need to win almost all of the swing voters to secure himself the seat.

PART TIME OFFICERS

ENVIORNMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY

Environmental and Sustainability Representative will be a more interesting one. Walsh is in the lead by 6.2 points, but almost 19 per cent of voters were undecided, or not intending on voting. With neither candidate reaching quota, we have to adjust how we look at things. With ‘unsure’ votes removed, Walsh has a 75 per cent chance of winning - likewise, if all of RONs transfer votes, and all ‘unsure’ votes were split proportionally between the two candidates, Walsh still only has a 75 per cent chance of winning. However, for Mac Uileagóid to get in the lead, he would need at least ¾ of the RON transfers and ‘unsure’ votes - assuming, or course, that the ‘unsure’ voters actually turn out.

EQUALITY AND DIVERSITY

From here on out, it gets a little easier. There is a 99 per cent chance that Oisín Cotter will be elected Equality and Diversity Representative - with 78 per cent of the poll, there isn’t much room for error left.

IONADAÍ GAEILGE AGUS CULTÚIR

There isn’t much to say about Ionadaí Gaeilge agus Cultúir - with almost 79 per cent of the poll, Finn has a 99 per cent chance of winning. She has the lowest RON opposition of any uncontested candidate, but given we received comments in the poll that the SU should ‘kill’ the ‘obsession’ with Gaeilge, we recommend she relax now, and save her energy for tackling that debate in the new year!

COLLEGE REPS

All College Rep candidates stand a 99 per cent chance of being elected - as all are unopposed, there isn’t much risk at hand. We won’t waste your time going over the individual vote shares of each one - you can read them below, if you really like.

REFERENDA

Both the USI Affiliation Referendum and the Student Health referendum are expected to pass - 99 per cent probability - but the former seems to be winning by a slimmer margin than in recent years - in 2018, it passed with 86 per cent, and in 2015, 91 per cent (the results from 2022 could not be found). The Sports Facilities Capitation Plan referendum seems likely to be rejected - again, 99 per cent probability. Third time unlucky.

#UCCVotes: University Express Straw Poll 2024